Key Takeaways Samsung is expected to report $7.11 billion in operating profit for Q3 2025, up 10% year-over-year. Conventional memory chip prices surge 171.8% amid robust AI server demand. Recent deal...
Samsung Electronics is on track to post its highest third-quarter operating profit since 2022, fueled by rising memory chip prices and strong server demand as customers replenish inventories, according to analyst projections.
The world's largest memory chip manufacturer is expected to report an operating profit of 10.1 trillion won for the July-September period, according to LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 31 analysts. The consensus figure represents a 10% increase compared to the same period last year.
Industry analysts attribute the recovery primarily to stronger conventional memory chip pricing, which helped offset weaker sales volumes in high-bandwidth memory chips.
Prices for some DRAM chips—widely used in servers, smartphones, and personal computers- jumped 171.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to TrendForce data.
The surge in memory chip demand stems largely from hyperscalers and AI-related investments for services such as ChatGPT, which have increased workloads on general servers and driven up conventional memory chip prices.
High-bandwidth memory chips, critical for artificial intelligence development, are designed to reduce power consumption and process large datasets by stacking chips vertically.
However, Samsung has faced challenges in this segment due to delays in supplying its latest 12-layer HBM3E chips to Nvidia, which has affected both its profit margins and share price.
Rivals SK Hynix and Micron have captured more of the AI-driven demand, while Samsung's exposure to China, where advanced chip sales face U.S. restrictions, has constrained its growth potential.
Market sentiment toward Samsung's chip business has improved following significant supply agreements with major technology companies.
In July 2025, Samsung announced a $16.5 billion chip supply deal with Tesla that will run through the end of 2033. The contract involves producing Tesla's next-generation AI6 chip at Samsung's upcoming facility in Taylor, Texas.
Samsung shares have risen more than 43% following the Tesla deal announcement, marking the stock's highest levels since September 2024.
More recently, during OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's visit to South Korea in October, Samsung, SK Hynix, and OpenAI announced partnerships to supply advanced memory chips to the Stargate project—a $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative.
The partnerships commit the two Korean chipmakers to scale up production of advanced memory chips, targeting 900,000 DRAM wafer starts per month.
Samsung Electronics Chairman Jay Y. Lee said in a statement following the OpenAI partnership announcement: "The world is at a pivotal moment with the advent of AI, and the industry must collaborate to effectively chart the future. Samsung is excited to partner with OpenAI, where we will together catalyze breakthroughs and possibilities."
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman added: "Korea has all the ingredients to be a global leader in AI—incredible tech talent, world-class infrastructure, strong government support, and a thriving AI ecosystem."
The AI chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, one of Samsung's major HBM customers, would also benefit Samsung, said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities.
Ryu added that Samsung's $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla has lifted expectations that Samsung's struggling contract chip manufacturing business could win more orders from major tech firms if the company delivers the project as planned.
While recent AI-driven supply deals signal a positive outlook for Samsung, analysts cautioned that uncertainties remain.
Key concerns include potential U.S. tariffs on chips and China's tightened export controls on rare earth materials used in advanced chips and manufacturing equipment.
In September, Micron announced it expects to sell out all of its HBM chips for calendar year 2026 in the coming months due to strong demand, highlighting the intense competition in the high-bandwidth memory market.
Samsung is scheduled to announce its estimates on revenue and operating profit on Tuesday, October 15, 2025, with full quarterly results expected later in the month.
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